Small and big disappointments – Lazio and Fiorentina are the two teams that have disappointed the most in this first half of the season. After finishing seventh and sixth respectively last year, they have failed to live up to expectations for different reasons. Sarri is paying the price for a transfer ban that has left him with a squad not fully suited to his style of play, producing underwhelming results that see the Biancocelesti sitting ninth. Fiorentina, now under Vanoli after the coaching change, appear to have much deeper issues that dropped them to the bottom of the table, although recent improvement—six points from the last three matchdays—offers some hope. This will be the first career meeting between Sarri and Vanoli.
Sarri builds up and goes vertical quickly – Sarri’s Lazio do not fully reflect the classic game model of the Tuscan coach. He has adapted to the squad he found at Formello, trying to exploit the build-up qualities of his center-backs and goalkeeper, as well as the pace of his forwards. The Biancocelesti work extensively from the back and then look to find their attackers quickly to attack space when it’s available:
- 3,707 touches in the defensive third (3rd in Serie A)
- Short goal kicks averaging 28.9 meters (17th in Serie A)
- Provedel completed 190 long passes (1st in Serie A), Gila 125 (3rd among Serie A outfield players for this metric)
Against Lecce, the opponent presses, a Lazio defender lays the ball off to Provedel, who immediately looks for Noslin running through on goal for the 2–0 Biancoceleste lead.
This approach, however, often leaves Lazio pinned back by opposition pressing, forcing them into a low block:
- Low defensive line: 45.95 meters (11th in Serie A)
- High opposing defensive line faced: 50.13 meters (19th in Serie A)
- 51 crosses completed by opponents into Lazio’s box (19th in Serie A)
Already 2–0 down against Napoli, Lazio were pushed deep once again and conceded yet another cross from the byline that led to a major chance for the visitors.
Lots of deep possession, few chances created – Sarri’s Lazio focus heavily on defensive solidity and low possession to limit the opponent’s control of the ball, but they struggle to generate offense:
- 18 goals scored in 18 matches (12th in Serie A; Zaccagni and Cancellieri joint top scorers with 3)
- 0.99 xG per match (16th in Serie A)
- 197 total shots (15th in Serie A; Zaccagni leads with 22 shots)
- 32 big chances created (14th in Serie A; Basic leads with 4 chances created)
Fiorentina attack a lot but waste too much – Fiorentina, under both Pioli and Vanoli, have consistently produced a high volume of shots and chances thanks to the quality of their forwards and wide players. Dodô’s ball-carrying remains a key weapon (56 Viola shots originate from actions involving the Brazilian full-back), along with Kean’s shooting frequency:
- Fiorentina average 1.45 xG per match (5th in Serie A; Kean with 10.8 xG, best in Serie A for attacking threat)
- 39 big chances created (4th in Serie A; Fagioli leads Fiorentina with 7)
- 13.6 shots per match (4th in Serie A; Kean leads Serie A with 72 total shots)
All this attacking production, however, has translated into too few goals—one of Fiorentina’s biggest issues this season:
- 29 big chances missed (18th in Serie A; Kean with 13 missed chances, most in the league)
- Huge gap between goals scored and xG produced: –9.1 (worst team figure in Serie A; Kean –5.8, worst individual figure in the league)
In Fiorentina–Verona (1–2), at 0–0 Kean found himself one-on-one with Montipò twice without scoring, then missed again at 0–1; at 1–1 it was Gudmundsson who squandered a potential lead.
Attacking bravery comes at a defensive cost – Vanoli’s side commit heavily in attack and, in doing so, leave large spaces at the back. Opponents—unlike Fiorentina themselves—often manage to capitalize on the chances they create, also exploiting a difficult season for De Gea:
- 28 goals conceded (16th defense in Serie A)
- 23.8 xG conceded (15th in Serie A)
- 78 shots on target conceded (16th in Serie A)
- 69.5% save percentage by De Gea (16th in Serie A)
- 3 more goals conceded than expected based on shot quality (17th in Serie A)
Lazio’s build-up – As mentioned earlier, Lazio rely on long spells of deep build-up before seeking width and depth through the long-passing accuracy of Provedel, Gila and Guendouzi. The wide players position themselves well but do not always break on the counter; instead, Lazio often flood the box quickly with multiple runners. The winger can then choose whether to cut inside and find overlapping full-backs or midfielders, shoot, or go to the byline.
In the first example, Zaccagni reaches the byline and picks out Basic’s late run, but the midfielder misses from close range. In the second, Isaksen instead cuts inside and shoots, scoring the Biancoceleste opener.
Fiorentina’s build-up – Fiorentina’s approach is not very different. They use a shorter build-up from the back before quickly spreading the play or going vertical, often through Pongračić and Fagioli, exploiting the pace and power of Dodô and Gosens out wide or Gudmundsson and Kean centrally. Once they move up the pitch, Vanoli’s side push forward with many players, aiming to counter-press immediately after losing possession, using Mandragora and Ndour. This, however, often leaves them exposed at the back.
In the first half of Fiorentina–Verona, at 0–0, a Fiorentina attack with many players in the box ends with Verona scoring the opener after just two passes.
Conclusions — Both teams have shown clear fragilities, but also defining traits. Lazio rely on the quality of their defenders and Guendouzi in possession, as well as the pace of their attacking trident. Fiorentina are built around the physicality and running power of their wide players and forwards, with a collective tendency to attack the box. This final matchday of the first half of the season will be crucial for Lazio’s hopes of reconnecting with the European places and for Fiorentina’s bid to move quickly out of the relegation zone. Vanoli’s side are showing signs of recovery, while Sarri’s team are going through a difficult spell. However, the spaces Fiorentina leave could help the Tuscan coach find attacking outlets—yet if the Viola manage to pin Lazio back, they can cause serious problems, provided they are clinical up front if they want to take points from the Olimpico.
