Rising geopolitical tensions could force FIFA to replace Iran at the tournament, opening the door to several possible scenarios
The road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup could take an unexpected turn after Iran’s sports minister suggested that the country may withdraw from the tournament scheduled to take place in the United States, Canada, and Mexico starting June 11.
According to Iran’s minister of sport Ahmad Donyamali, the national team currently cannot travel to the United States due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The statement, delivered during a televised appearance, referenced the broader conflict involving the U.S. and Israel and raised concerns about safety and logistics for the Iranian delegation.
For now, Iran’s withdrawal is not yet official, but the situation has already sparked debate about what would happen if one of the qualified teams ultimately cannot participate.
FIFA Monitoring the Situation
Gianni Infantino recently met with Donald Trump at the White House and reportedly received assurances that the Iranian national team would be welcomed safely if it decided to attend the tournament.
Infantino reiterated that the World Cup should serve as a unifying event, even during periods of international tension.
However, the political climate could still complicate matters. A key date to watch is April 30, when FIFA is scheduled to hold a congress in Canada where the issue could be formally addressed if the situation remains unresolved.
Why Iran’s Case Is Complicated
Iran already secured qualification early in the Asian qualifiers. But there is an additional complication: all of Iran’s group-stage matches are scheduled to be played in the United States, which intensifies the political sensitivity of the situation.
FIFA technically has broad discretion if a qualified team withdraws. Possible options include:
- Leaving the group with three teams instead of four
- Selecting a replacement team
- Inviting a federation through a special decision rather than a strict ranking rule
Most observers believe FIFA would prefer replacing Iran to maintain a standard four-team group.
Could Italy Benefit?
One scenario involves replacing Iran with another Asian team, possibly one of the nations still involved in continental playoff routes such as:
- Iraq national football team
- United Arab Emirates national football team
However, another path could open the door for a European team — and that’s where Italy national football team enters the conversation.
If Italy were to fail in the final qualifying playoffs under coach Gennaro Gattuso, they would likely be the highest-ranked national team among those not qualified according to the FIFA ranking.
That scenario could make the Azzurri a logical candidate if FIFA opted for a ranking-based replacement.
A Long Shot — But Still Possible
For now, Italy’s primary objective remains qualifying on the field. Any replacement scenario would depend on several unpredictable factors:
- Iran officially withdrawing
- FIFA choosing to replace the team
- The governing body deciding the criteria for selection
Still, with the 2026 World Cup approaching and the global political situation evolving, this unexpected twist could create one of the most unusual qualification stories in tournament history.
