There’s hardly been time to wave goodbye to Matchday 22 of Serie A—and possibly to Monza’s stint in Serie A—before we’ll know the verdicts for Italian teams in the Champions League and Europa League between tomorrow and Thursday.
Today, there’s only one day of rest: just enough time to take a deep breath before diving back into the sea of no-return 90 minutes. These matches will deliver crucial verdicts for the present and, in some cases, decisive ones for the future.
Take Roma, for instance: the only Italian side still teetering between playoff qualification and a shocking elimination in the European group stage. Such an outcome would be humiliating in a season where their hopes of contending for top domestic honors were abandoned long ago…thanks to Juric.
But let’s go in order… Let’s start with the team not playing in Europe, and it shows: Antonio Conte’s Napoli. Conte has often been criticized for struggling to manage both the league and European commitments and for never leaving his mark internationally. It’s no coincidence that after Napoli’s post-match victory against Juventus, Conte took the opportunity to get a proverbial “stone out of his shoe,” praising his team’s European-style football: European-style football but in Serie A.
In this league, the Partenopei—or, as Conte might prefer to call them, the “Perteuropei” from now on—are literally laying down the law. Consecutive victories against Atalanta and Juventus have further raised the stock of the league leaders, who have now officially become the hare of the championship. They’re chased by a few sporadic stragglers and by that sly fox Inzaghi, with his giant Inter, the reigning champions, forced to keep winning to maintain the frantic pace set by the Azzurri.
Inter, coming off a 4-0 win in Lecce, must win at home against Monaco to ensure they finish the Champions League group stage among the top four. A draw, however, would still guarantee them a spot among the top eight, the group of teams that will skip the playoffs and directly enter the Round of 16.
The mission is certainly not impossible, but they cannot afford to let their guard down. A loss would leave their current 13 points vulnerable, particularly to Monaco. With a two-goal win, Monaco would have equal points and goal difference to Inter, with the head-to-head record in their favor.
This is just a hypothesis, nothing more—a danger to exorcise rather than invoke by discussing or writing about it. Football is played on the green pitch, by running harder than your opponents and, above all, by scoring one more goal than they do. It’s not a subject to analyze with a calculator in hand.
So, I’ll spare you the tedium of going through all the possible scenarios based on acquired and potential goal differences and previous head-to-head results for Atalanta, Milan, and Juventus—the other Italian teams vying for a spot among the top eight. Let’s think big because Italian football has already proven to be back at a high level in Europe in recent seasons, and it’s confirming that again this year. Atalanta and Milan hold their destinies in their own hands: if they win, they’re guaranteed to finish the group stage among the top eight.
That’s the factual situation. Unfortunately for Atalanta, fresh off an important comeback victory against Como in Serie A, the facts also include a nearly prohibitive final match, away to the powerhouse Barcelona. Then again, wasn’t the Europa League final against Leverkusen also supposed to be prohibitive? Yet Gasperini’s boys dominated and won. If there’s one team that can rattle the Blaugrana, it’s Atalanta—provided they can sustain the high intensity of one-on-one duels across the pitch for the full 90 minutes without ever dropping their guard. Difficulty rating: 9 out of 10.
Milan managed to take three points from the Tardini in Serie A, but with 1,000 internal controversies. The post-match spat on the pitch between Conceicao and Calabria made headlines worldwide as if it were a new “Phileas Fogg.” If there were time for deeper reflection, one might ask what atmosphere has pervaded the Milan locker room since the start of the season. But it’s game time, and, to quote Heraclitus, panta rei: everything flows. Except, apparently, for the lingering unease in the dressing room—that seems to stay.
Next up is an away match at Dinamo Zagreb. Difficulty rating: 4 out of 10, to be generous. The real threats are the hostile crowd and Dinamo’s faint hopes of sneaking into the playoff zone, led by… (spoiler alert, this is another challenge) Fabio Cannavaro. What’s Cannavaro doing on the Dinamo Zagreb bench? Since December, he’s stepped in mid-season and has been doing well. Above all, he’ll be eager to prove himself, and tactically, he knows how to stifle opponents’ play. For Milan, who must win, even the possibility of a draw could become a nightmare. It might force Ibrahimovic to pull out his calculator again—fresh from showing off his trophy count on social media—to calculate their final position based on other results. Cui prodest?
That’s the last Latin quote, I promise, otherwise, this might feel like a Claudio Lotito editorial—which brings us, by association, to his Lazio. The team’s Champions League run in Serie A was stalled Sunday night by Fiorentina and, above all, by bad luck: Pedro’s shot off the inside post in the dying moments of the match, rolling across the goal line and out the other side, still cries for revenge.
In the Europa League, however, Baroni’s Lazio has been unstoppable. They’re currently top of their group and need just a draw in Braga to secure first place in the regular season standings. Lazio deserves full credit for honoring this competition so far, and they must stay focused to finish strong.
The Italian teams analyzed so far are all in solid contention, in both the Champions League and Europa League, to reach the Round of 16 directly—Lazio has already secured their spot mathematically. Now, let’s open the chapter of the bitter notes: Bologna and Juventus in the Champions League, and Roma in the Europa League.
Bologna, unfortunately, woke up too late. Last week’s prestigious victory over Dortmund will go down in history as Bologna’s first-ever Champions League win, but it’s too little, too late. The away match against Sporting in Lisbon will be a chance to savor Champions League air one last time this season, without the burden of calculators, as the die has already been cast: the Rossoblu are out of the top 24. A pity.
Juventus is coming off their first league defeat of the season in Serie A, at the hands of league leaders Napoli. In the Champions League, they’re currently 17th with 12 points and assured of finishing in the top 24. However, they’d need a planetary alignment—more improbable than the recent one on January 25—to secure direct passage to the Round of 16. First, they must beat Benfica, who still need points to secure a playoff spot. Then, at least ten of the twelve teams ranked 5th to 16th must fail to win. Difficulty rating for this combination: 9.99 out of 10.
And now, Roma: what a disappointment. Currently 21st in the Europa League group standings, with 9 points from 7 matches, Roma is the second Italian team (after Bologna) across all competitions not to have reached double digits with 90 minutes left. Beating Eintracht Frankfurt at home would secure a playoff spot, keeping them in the hunt for a significant season objective. While qualification is not mathematically excluded with a draw or even a loss, Roma would no longer control their own destiny. Instead, they’d need to break out the scientific calculator and analyze countless permutations. Roma fans, who will once again pack the Olimpico for yet another sold-out match on Thursday, surely don’t deserve this, do they? Qualification difficulty rating: 4 out of 10.
While a decisive performance on the pitch against Eintracht is both expected and possible—despite the Germans arriving second in their league table, just behind Lazio—a shocking twist could ignite Roma’s transfer market. Casemiro, the Brazilian defensive midfielder who’s won it all with Real Madrid but has spent the last three years fading in Manchester United’s chaos, has reportedly opened the door to a loan move to Roma. The deal hinges on United covering a significant portion of his astronomical wages, but if it materializes, it would be the signing of the January transfer window.
