Conte’s team are held to a 0-0 draw in Parma, but Inter fail to capitalize as they’re stopped by Lazio. Juve are a step away from the Champions League.
Everything will be decided on the final matchday, but with just 90 minutes left in the Serie A season, several verdicts are all but sealed.
Let’s start with the thrilling title race: Antonio Conte’s Napoli are truly one step away from clinching the fourth Scudetto in the club’s history—their second in the last three years. Despite back-to-back draws against Genoa and Parma (who combined haven’t taken any points from Napoli), Conte and his players can go into the last game of the season—at home against an already-safe Cagliari—knowing their fate is entirely in their own hands.
In a title run that was always expected to go down to the wire, Inter failed to take advantage of the opportunities Napoli gave them. According to Conte himself, his team has reached the finish line completely drained, lacking both physical and technical resources. Inzaghi’s team, heroic and brilliant in the Champions League, have won just 2 of their last 5 Serie A matches, losing two as well—against Bologna and Roma. Just a single point from those two (consecutive) losses would’ve allowed Inter to enter the final matchday level on points with Napoli.
Of course, the toll of playing in multiple competitions has been heavy: between Coppa Italia, Supercoppa, and especially the Champions League, Inzaghi’s side have played 57 matches so far this season (4 in Coppa Italia, 2 in the Supercoppa, 14 in the Champions League, and 37 in Serie A), compared to Napoli’s 38 matches (37 in Serie A and 1 in the Coppa Italia).
That’s 19 more matches—over 1,700 additional minutes on the legs and minds of a squad that, while deeper than Napoli’s and built to compete on all fronts, has still been hampered by key injuries. Lautaro and Thuram, in particular, have proven irreplaceable, and their backups, Arnautovic and Taremi, have rarely been able to fill their shoes.
Still, we should wait before drawing final conclusions about this season, because the last 90 minutes could force us to revise all our evaluations and rewrite every verdict.
In the Champions League race, the clear favorite—heading into the final sprint—is Juventus, two points ahead of Lazio and one above Roma. Ranieri has pulled off another feat (far from the first of his career, and not even the most notable), leading his Roma to Europe. The final match will determine which European competition the Giallorossi will take part in next season. The tribute at the Olimpico to their manager during their final home game against Milan was moving and well deserved. Should Roma—rescued from the brink of relegation after two disastrous months under Ivan Juric—win away at Torino in the season finale, they’ll lock in a Europa League spot. And if Venezia, still fighting to avoid relegation, manage to stop Juventus, a Roma win in Turin could even mean Champions League qualification.
If Roma draw or lose in Turin, everything will hinge on Lazio’s result at home to Lecce. In the worst-case scenario, Roma will still play in the Conference League—a competition that brings back sweet memories for the club’s fans.
That said, it’s hard to imagine Juventus letting the Champions League slip from their grasp right at the finish line. Eusebio Di Francesco’s Venezia, who have already performed a minor miracle by staying alive in the relegation battle until the final day, have the lowest squad value in Serie A according to Transfermarkt. Their most valuable player is Nicolussi Caviglia (worth €8 million), who’s ironically on loan from Juventus. The estimated ratio in squad value is nearly 1 to 10: Venezia’s entire squad is worth just over €70 million, while Juventus’ is well above €600 million—not to mention the wage bill.
Of course, money isn’t everything—you don’t play football on paper, let alone on a bed of banknotes. Venezia will fight tooth and nail, especially with their fans behind them, but it’s difficult to picture any outcome other than a Juventus win—which, by the way, would be worth more than €60 million in Champions League prize money.
In the relegation battle, Empoli now appear to be the frontrunner for survival. Their away win over Monza brings them to 31 points, level with Lecce, who beat Torino 1-0. On the final day, the Tuscans will enjoy home advantage against Verona, who aren’t yet mathematically safe: they need at least a point to guarantee survival, but one point might not be enough for Empoli. What’s clear is that, on paper, Empoli’s task against Verona is far easier than Venezia’s against Juventus, or even Lecce’s, who will travel to face Lazio. As usual when all games are played simultaneously, much will depend on results elsewhere.
Simultaneity doesn’t prevent teams from making calculations—if anything, it encourages them. Take Napoli in Parma: when word came in that Lazio had drawn in Milan against Inter, the Napoli bench quickly urged the players on the pitch to stop taking risks, as the draw had suddenly become a favorable result. But playing all games at once also ensures fairness: no team benefits from knowing other results ahead of time. Everyone starts on equal footing.
