Senegal and Iraq meet in Toronto with pride, survival hopes, and a possible third-place lifeline on the line.

The Big Picture

Senegal and Iraq arrive at the final matchday with zero points, but the door is not completely closed. France and Norway have already taken control of Group I, leaving this match as a battle for third place and a possible wild-card route.

Senegal has shown more attacking life, scoring three goals across two defeats. Iraq has struggled more heavily, conceding seven goals and scoring only once.

How the Teams Arrive

Senegal lost 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, but Ismaïla Sarr’s late double against Norway showed the Lions of Teranga still have weapons.

Iraq lost 4-1 to Norway and 3-0 to France, struggling to contain elite attacking quality and needing a major response in Toronto.

Recent Form

Senegal

Norway 3-2 Senegal
France 3-1 Senegal
Saudi Arabia 0-0 Senegal
USA 3-2 Senegal
Senegal 3-1 Gambia

Iraq

France 3-0 Iraq
Iraq 1-4 Norway
Iraq 0-2 Venezuela
Spain 1-1 Iraq
Iraq 1-0 Andorra

Head-to-Head History

There are no previous official meetings between Senegal and Iraq.

SMIT AI WORLD CUP SIMULATOR

Squad Strength Index

Expected Goals Simulation

Win Probability

Four Most Likely Results

Most Likely Result

Senegal 2-1 Iraq

Predicted Goalscorers

Ismaïla Sarr
Nicolas Jackson
Ali Al-Hamadi

Player of the Simulation

Ismaïla Sarr

Confidence Level

64/100

AI Match Simulation

The SMIT AI Simulator projects Senegal to control more territory and create the better chances, especially through wide attacks and transitions.

Iraq stays compact early, trying to protect the central lane and counter through Al-Hamadi and Bayesh. Senegal, however, gradually finds rhythm through Mané and Sarr, forcing Iraq deeper.

The match remains close because Iraq has enough direct attacking quality to score, but Senegal’s pace and physical edge make the difference late.

Why the Simulator Predicts This Result

Senegal has more individual quality, more attacking depth, and a stronger transition game. Iraq’s structure can keep the game competitive, but its defensive numbers in the group suggest it may struggle to contain Senegal for 90 minutes.

Group I Impact

A Senegal win would secure third place and keep slim wild-card hopes alive. An Iraq win would move the Lions of Mesopotamia above Senegal. A draw would favor Senegal for third place on goal difference, but likely leave both teams out.

Group I Standings