Have you ever wondered how much a tie can be worth at the end of the season? Maybe not so much in the standings … but in the stories that write championships, it matters a lot
Atalanta-Inter, paradosso Napoli: perché deve “tifare” per un X2 (Foto: Ansa/LaPresse) – serieanews.com
That Serie A can be unpredictable is nothing new. But the best part comes when watching a direct clash like Atalanta-Inter, there is also a third team that finds itself, despite itself, an interested spectator.
And that team is Napoli, which on Sunday night will sit on the couch, cup of chamomile tea or beer in hand (free choice), “cheering” for something that would not normally be in the thoughts of a Scudetto candidate. Yes, because in this tight three-way race, every detail can make a difference. Even the outcome of a game in which you are not directly involved.
Let us try to bring order to an argument that, we admit, requires some concentration. The Serie A standings are already a jungle of calculations and crossovers, but when you get into the realm of possible three-way ties, things get complicated.
Easy if you finish tied on points with one team: you play a playoff and go. But if three finish tied at the end of the season, you first look at the break-even standings (i.e., the points scored in the head-to-head matches between the three). The top two will play-off for the title. And who is left out? Whoever did worse in those confrontations.
La classifica avulsa della Serie A oggi: un equilibrio precario
Let’s do the math results in hand. Before the challenge between Inter and Atalanta, the avulse ranking says:
Napoli: 5 points
Inter Milan: 5 points
Atalanta: 3 points
La classifica avulsa della Serie A oggi: un equilibrio precario (AnsaFoto) – serieanews.com
La Dea won in the first leg against Napoli, but lost both to Inter and in the return to the partenopei. Here’s what happens in Sunday’s three most likely scenarios:
Inter wins ➔ The standings become Inter 8, Napoli 5, Atalanta 3. Inter flies both in direct clashes and (probably) in the overall standings. For Napoli, it is not the best, but it remains in the running.
Draw ➔ Inter 6, Napoli 5, Atalanta 4. Here Napoli secures at least the tie-breaker, at which point they play it all out over 90 dry minutes against the Milanese Nerazzurri.
Atalanta wins ➔ The situation becomes more complicated: Atalanta 6, Inter 5, Napoli 5. In this case, Napoli is in serious danger of finishing third and thus out of the Scudetto final. The reason? The goal difference.
Let’s be clear, we are talking about a very remote possibility. The idea that three teams could arrive at the end of the championship with the same points is fascinating but really complicated to realize. But in such a compelling season, it is good not to take anything for granted and to find ourselves advantaged in any possible scenario.
Atalanta-Inter, Conte tifa pareggio: perché il segno 1 è da evitare
Obviously, in Antonio Conte’s view, a draw would be the perfect result, and not just for the avulse standings: it takes points away from both and keeps Napoli in the title race.
An Inter Milan win, on the other hand, is likely to give Inzaghi the decisive push for a Scudetto breakaway. And a Dea win? Well, that one could turn the three-way race into a game Napoli is not sure it can play.
Atalanta-Inter, Conte tifa pareggio: perché il segno 1 è da evitare (AnsaFoto) – serieanews.com
The issue is, precisely, the avulse ranking. In the case of a tied finish in this special ranking, first the goal difference in the comparison between the two tied teams and then the total goal difference will count. If in the first case Napoli and Inter are tied, by virtue of the two 1-1 between the first and second leg, the total one at the moment reads +36 to +22 for the Nerazzurri. It goes without saying that it would be very difficult for the partenopei to catch up.
What will happen in Bergamo is not just a matter between Gasperini and Inzaghi. It is the crossroads of a championship that is being played on inches, nerves of steel and bold choices. Napoli, on Sunday, will have to watch. With the hope that fate, for once, will make friends.
This article Atalanta-Inter, Napoli paradox: why it must “root” for an X2 appeared in its original version first on SerieANews.
